Hydrological Modelling for Assessing Climate Change Impacts at different Scales
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Innovative value, impact and relevance

In Denmark, the future changes in climate are expected to result in more extreme hydrological conditions. Higher precipitation is predicted in winter resulting in flooding and water logging in low lying areas, whereas reduced precipitation and higher evapotranspiration are predicted during summer resulting in decreasing water tables, dry root zones and reduced low flows in streams. Additionally, rising sea levels and intensified storm events may have important impacts on coastal zones. This is expected to influence future decisions with respect to e.g., planning of infrastructure and urban structures, recreational areas and water resources management. However, the existing tools have important limitations on the accuracy and reliability of predictions of the impact of the future climatic conditions.
The proposed project is expected to result in innovative and operational solutions for quantifying the effects of climate change on the hydrological system at both regional and local scale. The methodologies and tools developed are expected to result in more accurate predictions of the impact of climate changes. Additionally, the uncertainty of the predictions will be quantified and hereby the robustness of the predicted impacts can be evaluated. Both results are important if assessment of the vulnerability as a function of location, present climate, geological settings, land use and season should be produced. It is expected that the results of the project can be used as the basis for generation of a climate impact atlas for e.g. Denmark, which will be highly relevant for future management of the water resources. The methods developed will be generic and will therefore be applicable to not only Denmark but also other places in the world. The export potential of the proposed project deliverables are therefore expected to be high.

The project is also expected to generate novel research results on scientific subjects such as coupling between hydrological and atmospheric models, downscaling over several scales from climate models to regional hydrological models and further to local hydrological models, uncertainty assessment of results generated under several sources of errors and uncertainties, and assessment of climate change impacts in ungauged catchments typically located in third world countries by utilizing new remote sensing products.

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Last modified : February 4, 2008
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